The Decline of Coal Power in Every State, Visualized

Coal has been on the decline for more than a decade in America. But in some states it's fading faster than others.

For more than a decade, pundits have claimed that “coal is dead” in America. But last year, coal burned in the United States was responsible for nearly a billion tons of carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions, about 19% of the country’s total. If America’s coal-fired power plants formed a country, they’d rank 5th globally in total CO2 emissions just behind Japan and far ahead of Germany. 

Coal in America is still very much alive. 

But there’s no doubt that this dirty source of power is on the decline. At its peak in 2007, America’s coal power plants were responsible for about half of the country’s electricity generation. Last year, coal was responsible for about 20% of power generation. 

The United States is a country of multitudes though, and the decline in coal generation has been far from uniform. To look at the country’s coal power generation or emissions in aggregate is to miss the full picture of what’s happening. 

As shown in the charts below, the speed and scale of coal’s decline has varied widely from state to state.

Reading this on a phone? Click this link to view larger versions of the charts below.

Source: EIA

Looking at this data a few things stand out to me.

The most obvious trend is the fact that coal power is on the decline in every single state in the country. Even in coal-producing states like Wyoming, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania coal’s share of electricity generation is falling.

In some states the decline is happening faster than others though. The reasons for this vary from state to state, but wind power and natural gas have driven most of the transition thus far.

Across the Great Plains, the decline of coal has been largely driven by the growth of wind. This makes sense given that these states are very windy and building new wind power projects is now cheaper than operating existing coal-fired power plants.

Source: EIA

Elsewhere coal is being replaced by natural gas. This trend, unlike the switch from coal to wind, is a bit of a mixed bag for the future of our planet.

Natural gas is about 90% methane, a greenhouse gas that is 25-80x more potent than CO2. It turns out that fossil fuel companies are really bad at preventing this stuff from leaking into the atmosphere. Some research suggests that when you factor in these leaks, natural gas warms up the atmosphere more than coal.

That’s why few environmentalists are celebrating the fact that states like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania are replacing much of their coal power with natural gas.

Source: EIA

But what about solar?

Up until now, solar power has replaced relatively little coal generation. In 2022 it was responsible for just 3% of the country’s total power generation. But over the coming years that will change dramatically.

Between now and 2030, 358 gigawatts of solar capacity are expected to go online, according to BloombergNEF. That’s about five times the country’s current total solar capacity and enough to power more than 75 million homes.

Those projects won’t just generate power when the sun is shining either. BloombergNEF expects 111 gigawatts of energy storage projects to come online over the next seven years.

I’m planning to write more about the growth of solar and battery storage in a future newsletter. In the meantime, let me know if there are any other trends in the power sector you’d like me to cover in the comments below.