The Latest Senate Bill Puts Thousands of Clean Energy Projects At Risk

An updated analysis of where clean energy projects are at risk of losing tax credits—and potentially their financial viability

Last night the Senate released the latest version of their sweeping reconciliation bill. Later today they are expected to begin voting on the bill.

For the last few months, I’ve been tracking this bill and analyzing its potential impact on clean energy development and investment in America. This morning, I updated my analysis and wanted to share it as quickly as possible. My hope is that advocates can use this data to convince moderate Republicans to request amendments that would preserve key provisions of the IRA.

The latest bill would put hundreds of billions of dollars of investment at risk

The latest Senate bill would phase out the investment and production tax credits (ITC and PTC) for any project that is placed in service after December 31, 2027.

As I’ve written before, the “placed in service” language is particularly problematic given that developers don’t always control when their projects reach final completion. Tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and local opposition could all delay a project. That would make developers hesitant to build anything that isn’t already under construction. For that reason, the ITC and PTC have always been based on “start of construction” dates.

If the bill passes in its current form this weekend, it would lead to a wave of cancellations around the country. Companies who planned to invest hundreds of billions and create tens of thousands of jobs would be forced to pull their investments as the rug is pulled out from under them.

2,332 solar and wind projects with a combined capacity of 547 GW are expected to come online in 2027 or later, according to our project tracker at Cleanview. The vast majority of these projects would be at risk of cancellation if the current Senate bill passes.

Moderate Republican Senators who have voiced concerns about phasing out the solar and wind tax credits early would see their states lose billions in investment.

If the ITC and PTC remain in place, North Carolina—home to Sen. Thom Tillis—is expected to see 28 GW of new solar and wind capacity by 2035. Without the ITC and PTC, the state would build about half that amount with just over 14 GW. The state would see roughly $15 billion less in investment over the next decade.

In Kansas—home to Sen. Jerry Moran—the ITC and PTC are expected to support 22 GW of new solar and wind capacity by 2035. Without the ITC and PTC, developers would build 6 GW less capacity—resulting in billions in lost investment.

North Carolina and Kansas wouldn’t be the only states that would lose if the ITC and PTC are phased out aggressively. Across the country, states—many of them led by Republicans in Congress—would lose tens of billions in investment.

Repealing the IRA would slam the brakes on the fastest-growing part of America’s energy economy. The impact would be felt across the country.

But Republican-led states, finally on the cusp of a clean energy boom, would bear the most environmental and economic pain, losing not just clean power, but economic momentum and a once-in-a-generation opportunity.