The Trump Rejection Election of 2025
Data from Virginia and New Jersey shows voters turning sharply away from Trump’s party.
The Democratic Party has been in the dumps for a long time now. But this week’s elections offered some of the first signs that, despite being less popular with voters than they have been in 35 years, Democrats might not be as doomed as everyone thought.
Virginia’s governors race is generally seen as a sort of referendum on the president in power. This week, voters in the state strongly rejected Trump’s party and chosen candidates. Democrats performed 9 points better in the state than they did in 2024. Every county but two shifted to the left compared to the 2024 election.
Going into this week, some polls suggested that even New Jersey could be in play for Republicans. For Democrats to lose a solidly blue state like that would be a disaster for the party. But those polls were very wrong. Democrats in New Jersey performed 7 points better than Kamala Harris did in 2024.
Across Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats also performed better with Hispanic and young voters—two demographics they lost badly in 2024.
